ARE THERE 154 CENTRAL TRUE SEGMENT-MATCHES? THE OFFSETS

To illustrate why the proposal is reasonable, we note that Qmatch at P=7 gives surprisingly good matches, and that 7cM segment-matches would have significantly greater probability of being true than the theoretical 50%. So with the striking quasi-family context of the central group we consider somewhere in the region of 70% to 90% of the segment-matches in the inner grouping may be true. Our proposal was that the false matches arising in the inner grouping roughly offset the true matches arising elsewhere. The following table shows what this means in terms of false segment-matches per inner pair, and true segment-matches per outer pair. 

It seems possible that the outer groups may under-deliver real matches, even with the inner groups delivering few false matches, and that an error estimate of 30 segment-matches seems appropriate.